Chris Berman calls this the best weekend in all of sports, the divisional round of the playoffs. The big four are coming off their byes, a week after all four home teams won in the wild card round for just the third time in 22 years since the NFL went to a 12-team playoff format. However, all four teams have not won in the divisional round since 2004. However you slice it, there figures to be a surprise or two this weekend and some exceptional football. Though Metlife Stadium and Invesco Field are officially closed for business in 2011, the Giants and Broncos don't figure to go quietly. In the last 17 postseasons, only once have both No. 1 seeds reached the Super Bowl (2009, Colts and Saints).



Last week: 2-2


New Orleans (-4) at San Francisco

Analysis: The Saints' only baggage entering this game is never having won a road playoff game. But the way their offense is performing, that could soon be an afterthought. They have scored 45 points in each of the last three games, including 616 yards of total offense in last weekend's win over Detroit. The Saints have been good but not great on the road, but the 49ers have not been to the playoffs since 2002, and the biggest question is whether their offense can put up enough points to alleviate some pressure on their elite defense. The 49ers seem to represent your classic one-and-done team in the playoffs, but there is something about this year's squad that has people believing. As much attention that will be paid to Drew Brees, Smith, and the 49ers defense, the determining factor could be the multifaceted rushing attack of the Saints. Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram add a whole new dimension to the Saints' potent offense, but the 49ers were almost historically good against the run this season, allowing only three touchdowns on the ground. While I feel that Smith could be pressing at times, the Saints are always a bit of an enigma on the road (see: Tampa Bay, St. Louis), and though comfortable temperatures are expected, I think we finally see a defense rise to the occasion to neutralize this ridiculous display of offense we've been witnessing. The Saints are still more likely than not to pull this one out, but San Francisco seems to have a winning formula that could foul up New Orleans. The pick: 49ers.


Denver at New England (-13.5)

Analysis: Okay, so Tebow Time got another chapter last week. Even the biggest Tebow haters had to be impressed by what he did against the league's best pass defense in the cold Denver weather as the Broncos will now try and become the first 8-8 team to reach a conference championship game. Whether the Steelers would have given the Patriots trouble is another story, but trouble is something New England seems to be pretty familiar with. This week many people are up in arms about them soiling the “spirit of the rule” with their questionably-timed addition of Josh McDaniels, the former Broncos head coach, to their staff. After all, it was McDaniels who drafted Tebow and Demaryius Thomas two years ago but was fired 12 games into the 2010 season following a cheating scandal of his own. He guided the Rams offense this year to be the league's lowest-scoring unit, but his familiarity with the Broncos is making this one smell more than a little suspicious. At any rate, the Broncos' only real hope of avenging an ugly, 41-23 loss to New England four weeks ago is to run, run, run. And perhaps even more importantly, don't turn the ball over. They had three fumbles in their Week 15 loss, including one utterly ridiculous one on a muffed punt at the end of the first half that gave New England a freebie field goal (somehow the ESPN crew neglected this in their weekly “C'mon, Man!” segment). What makes me believe the Broncos won't even keep this close is the fact that they rushed for 252 yards at home and still lost by 18 points. Defensively, Tom Brady will carve them up again, and even if that doesn't work, expect a healthy dose of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stephen Ridley, as the Pats racked up 141 yards of their own on the ground in the first meeting. Once a hiccup on his resume, Brady should have no problem winning a second straight game after starting 1-6 against the Broncos in his career. In typical Patriots storybook fashion, expect a flip of the script of this postseason meeting six years to the day Denver ended New England's dynasty with a 27-13 victory in Denver, playing on a short week because Roger Goodell wanted to make sure the game would be seen in prime time. This time it could be the start of a new dynasty. The pick: Patriots.


Houston at Baltimore (-9)

Analysis: Is anyone buying into Yates Time? Okay, he hasn't gone Hollywood like Tebow, but T.J. Yates looked like a seasoned veteran in guiding the Texans to the franchise's first playoff win last week against Cincinnati. These are two teams predicated on running the ball and rushing the passer, so something's got to give, but the Ravens have been nearly unbeatable at home under John Harbaugh. They were 8-0 in Baltimore this season and are 27-5 there the last four years. Houston is 0-5 lifetime against the Ravens and this one has the smell of a potential blowout if the Texans fall behind and the game lands squarely on Yates' shoulders. He has proven that he doesn't get rattled easily, but he also has yet to face a defense of this caliber. Still, Baltimore has rarely run away with games this season, with the exception being an opening day, 35-7 rout of the Steelers in which they forced seven Pittsburgh turnovers. Their definition of a blowout would be something along the lines of 24-10, but by the same token if they fall behind Houston's pass rush could prove problematic. In the teams' first meeting in Week 6, a 29-14 Baltimore win, Joe Flacco topped 300 yards, Ray Rice went over 100 rushing, and Anquan hit triple-digits in receiving. I wouldn't expect the same kind of performance this time around, but I don't think Yates can stay mistake-free and Arian Foster may not be able to carry the entire offense himself. The pick: Ravens.


New York Giants at Green Bay (-8)

Analysis: Of course the talk about 2007 is going to start. Here are the Giants again with some postseason momentum, going to Lambeau Field against a heavily-favored Packers team that people are doubting for some reason. At 15-1, the Packers, of scoring 560 points in the regular season, apparently have plenty of weaknesses that are just waiting to be exposed. Really, that's baloney, and even the most hardcore Giants fan knows it. The Giants have a good shot to keep this one close because their pass rush could overwhelm Green Bay's smallish offensive line at times, but by the same token, their secondary could struggle to prevent the big play, especially with the return of Greg Jennings. The biggest thing to keep an eye on is which team's sub-par running game comes to play. A week ago, the Giants gauged Atlanta for 172 yards after averaging a league-worst 89.2 yards per game in the regular season. The Packers, meanwhile, weren't much better, ranking 27th at 97.4 a game. One-time Giant Ryan Grant has shown some flashes the past few weeks although he has yet to top 100 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry the last four weeks. The return of a healthy James Starks could provide an additional boost as well, although he is questionable with an ankle injury. The Packers, with a well-rested Aaron Rodgers (he took the day off in the team's regular-season finale against Detroit), are likely return to the NFC title game, but the Giants should get enough from their front four and Eli Manning to make a game out of it. The pick: Giants.