Line: Patriots by 2½   

 

            This isn’t a movie I wanted to watch again, but it’s the Super Bowl, so we give it our due diligence as American citizens. The Patriots and Giants at least figure to put on a heck of a show, just as they did four years ago in Glendale. Rather evenly matched, there are advantages and disadvantages for both clubs. A further look:

 

Quarterbacks – Tom Brady vs. Eli Manning

 

            “I believe in Eli,” said Deion Sanders. Many people now do, but who isn’t convinced Tom Brady is going to seize the opportunity to finally join his idol Joe Montana? Both quarterbacks have the moxie to win in the fourth quarter, but Brady is rarely rattled, even though the Giants got after him in Super Bowl XLII. Despite Eli’s fourth-quarter heroics in 2011, no one is better with the game on the line than the Golden Boy Brady. Edge: PATRIOTS.

 

Running backs – Green-Ellis/Woodhead vs. Jacobs/Bradshaw

 

            The thunder/lightning combo of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw can be lethal when they get going. The Patriots don’t need to run much but were effective doing so in the AFC championship game. Both Giants backs can make the big play when they need to, giving them a slight advantage. Edge: GIANTS.

 

Receivers – Welker/Branch vs. Cruz/Nicks/Manningham

 

            Perhaps no one is more underrated going into this game than Brady’s BFF Deion Branch. He gives the Patriots a vertical element many don’t feel they have. Welker is deadly from the slot and can beat teams deep. The Giants’ trio is also quite imposing, particularly the record-setting Cruz. Nicks did not play in the teams’ first meeting, but Manningham came up with a clutch touchdown reception in the fourth quarter. With New England’s secondary being even more suspect than the Giants’, New York gets the slight nod here. Edge: GIANTS.

 

Tight ends – Gronkowski/Hernandez vs. Jake Ballard

 

            This one isn’t even close. Even if Rob Gronkowski’s ankle isn’t 100%, he and Hernandez are matchup nightmares for defenses. Both tight ends caught touchdowns in the first meeting and will be key this time around. Ballard also made two enormous catches in that game, including the winning score, but he does not present nearly the type of challenges that New England’s duo does. Edge: PATRIOTS.

 

Defensive line – Wilfork vs. JPP/Osi/Tuck

 

            Vince Wilfork is a nightmare for interior linemen, but the front four of the Giants is ferocious. New York matches up well with New England because of their ability to get pressure on Brady without blitzing, and if the Giants get the lead this group could tee off. Edge: GIANTS.

 

Linebackers – Mayo/Spikes vs. Boley/Kiwanuka

 

            Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes are fast and instinctive and capable of making plays in the passing game, even though Michael Boley and Mathias Kiwanuka are stout as well. The speed of New England’s linebackers, including Rob Ninkovich, could hinder the Giants’ running game. Edge: PATRIOTS.

 

Secondary – Arrington/Chung vs. Rolle/Webster/Phillips

 

            Neither secondary is very dependable and struggles to prevent the big play. Julian Edelman, a natural wideout, could see time playing DB. New England’s secondary is opportunistic and New York’s is physical. But the veteran experience of the Giants’ defensive backs makes their impact potentially more prominent. Edge: GIANTS.

 

Special Teams

 

            Both kickers are solid and both punters are dependable, while coverage teams are adequate. Danny Woodhead is an underrated returner despite a fumble last week, and Julian Edelman could potentially break one on punt return duties. Edge: PATRIOTS.

 

Coaching – Bill Belichick vs. Tom Coughlin

 

            Some are wondering if Tom Coughlin will become a Hall of Fame coach with a win, but there is no doubt about Belichick. He could lead the Patriots to a winning season with a roster of high school players as long as Brady was still his quarterback. He even proved he can win without Brady when he did so with Matt Cassel. Any deficiencies the Patriots have, Belichick can mask. And weaknesses the Giants have, he can exploit. Coughlin is a good motivator and a smart coach, but he is no Belichick. Edge: PATRIOTS.

 

Intangibles

 

            The revenge factor and the fact that the writing has seemingly been on the wall since the day the lockout was lifted heavily favor New England. Tom Brady is not likely to lose two straight Super Bowls, to the same team no less. He has a chance to finally join his idol Joe Montana in football lore, and having already played the Giants this year Belichick will make the necessary adjustments. Only eight players remain from the 2007 squad that lost to the Giants, but New England will be calm and collected because of their coach. The Pats have won 10 in a row, and seem to have that good karma that touches them just about every year going again. The notion of the Giants repeating their 2007 postseason gem seems to good to be true. Edge: PATRIOTS.

 

Prediction

 

            As I said above, a franchise with so much good luck and karma losing two straight Super Bowls to the same team seems highly unlikely. The Giants will be in big trouble if their pass rush is ineffective, because like New England they have issues in the secondary. As good as New York’s receivers are, a slow start could doom the Giants. They play games close to the vest, and if we’ve learned anything from last week’s game, there is just too much that can go wrong against New England in a close game, even when considering what happened in Super Bowl XLII. The ultimate cherry on top would be Brady surpassing his idol Montana for most playoff wins in the city of one of his biggest rivals. Patriots 33, Giants 23.